Brexit. what price Cambridge Econometric Analysis

Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics commissioned Sadiq Khan, the Labor mayor of London, to model how the UK economy would perform if it remained in the EU. They then compared this with data published by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) in March 2023 and forecasts based on this data, although these forecasts were downgraded last November.

The report's key findings are low growth, low employment, a strong negative impact on investment, imports falling more than exports and a growing gap between London and the rest of the UK. The report analyzed total value addition, which is a measure of the value added by a region by producing goods and providing services. According to Cambridge Econometrics, the total value in Great Britain will be £2,207 billion in 2023 and £2,771 billion in 2035. But analysts calculate that without Brexit it would be GBP 2,347 billion in 2023 and GBP 3,082 billion in 2035. This means that the total value added in 2023 will be 6 percent higher. It will be 10.1% in 2035, lower than without Brexit. Low. The authors also say that by 2035, there will be 3 million fewer jobs in Great Britain, or 32 percent. Lower investments, 5 percent lower exports and 16 percent lower imports than they would have been had the EU not left.

As they stressed, in the modelling, they sought to “isolate and subtract” the effect of Brexit from other events that affected the economy, such as the Covid-19 pandemic or Russian aggression against Ukraine. Khan recalled these calculations in his speech Thursday evening, in which he called for closer ties with the European Union.

“The cost of the Brexit crisis can only be resolved if we take a mature approach and are open to improving our trading arrangements with our European neighbours,” he said.

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