Beijing is considering a significant expansion and diversification of its nuclear forces. In recent years, China has been building a nuclear triad that includes land, sea and air forces. The construction of hundreds of new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos and the development of new nuclear weapons have raised serious concerns about the country’s nuclear doctrine.
In an era of intensifying great power rivalry, particularly between the US and China, this process raises questions about the future of peace, stability and security in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
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The People’s Liberation Army of China honored the Guardsmen in 2023.
In the past few years, China has seen a rapid increase in the number of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles deployed in underground pits and mobile launchers under the command of China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force.
For years, China was thought to have about 20 ICBM silos and 100 mobile launchers for these missiles, with a total of 200 operational nuclear warheads.
However, these numbers began to change rapidly. Currently, it is estimated that the PRC is building at least 300 additional ICBM pits at three new missile ranges located in the northwestern desert regions of the country.
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Even more worrisome is the fact that the new Chinese silos can hold the military’s most advanced missile, the DF-41. According to reports, one such missile could carry three independently guided warheads called MIRVs.
While China has an estimated 400 nuclear weapons, this number is projected to increase to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035. This would put the PRC practically on par with the US and Russia.
Under the 2010 Bilateral Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), these countries agreed to introduce limits on strategic nuclear forces. The deal allowed for the possession of 1,550 nuclear weapons.
At the beginning of 2023, Russia decided to suspend the agreement, but did not decide to completely withdraw from the agreement. It was made clear that the country would continue to respect the agreed numerical limits.
As per arrangements China is currently developing high-speed nuclear reactors with Russian help. They are to produce plutonium, the material of choice for modern nuclear weapons.
Florence Low / Poole / PAP
Xi Jinping
Patterns for China
In the past, China relied mainly on a small number of ICBM missiles placed in fixed land-based silos and mobile launchers capable of retaliatory strikes. However, in recent years, this has begun to change.
China has developed a nuclear force of several hundred land-based missiles. They became an atomic triad based on operating from land, sea, and air. Chinese nuclear forces were built on American and Russian models.
The Chinese Air Force is adding a strategic mission to its regular missions. Besides Modernizing Soviet bombers, they are developing a new long-range strategic bomber with reduced detection.
The Navy also deployed a nuclear deterrence and strike force in the China Sea. It currently has six nuclear powered submarines. Each of them can carry up to 12 ICBMs, and more are under construction.
Such powers provide Chinese leadership A mobile, stealthy and survivable submarine nuclear deterrent and strike agentIt could eventually compete with US and Russian submarine capabilities.
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The ship Qi Jiguang arrives at the port of Manila, Philippines on June 14, 2023.
Versatile reinforcements
Beyond the traditional nuclear power triangle, Beijing is also growing New Strategic Weapon Systems, Orbital Bombing System (FOBS), hypersonic gliding missile, etc. As a weapon of unlimited range, the FOBS is launched from a ground platform, carried into space, and re-enters the atmosphere en route to its mission.
The glider missile is a serious threat due to its high speed – at least five times the speed of sound – and maneuverability. FOBS can be armed with a conventional or nuclear weapon.
Some PRC defense strategists have expressed interest in low-yield nuclear weapons.
“This could provide the Chinese military with asymmetric capabilities to apply pressure during escalation, similar to Russian nuclear threats during the war in Ukraine,” said Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of US Strategic Command (STRATCOM).
From new silos to new bases, these changes will greatly improve the reliability and effectiveness of China’s nuclear deterrent and strike. This happens when they are ranked in expected numbers and in assumed probabilities.
Mark Cristino / Poole / PAP
Xi Jinping
A strategic advance
Beijing has long believed that its relatively small nuclear arsenal is sufficient for deterrence purposes.
If necessary, China can retaliate with a strike against an adversary’s military, civilians or economy with its remaining nuclear forces.
The expected expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal could also give China a first strike capability. This would enable the Chinese leadership to launch a massive nuclear strike against an adversary to deter or prevent a conventional military or nuclear strike during a crisis and conventional conflict.
American reaction
Another worrisome theoretical issue is information about the launch-alert status of Chinese nuclear forces. As described in US estimates, this is a situation called an “early warning counterattack,” where “missile attack warning leads to a counterattack before the enemy can detonate the first attack.”
Admiral Charles Richard, former commander of STRATCOM, warned in 2021: “We are seeing a strategic advance for China. I would describe the rapid development and modernization of China’s nuclear and conventional forces as breathtaking.
“I know there has been a lot of discussion about why China is doing this. All I’m saying is that it doesn’t matter why China is developing and modernizing,” Richard added. “What matters is that they are developing the ability to execute any nuclear weapons strategy, which is the culmination of building a conscript military. Remember that China is not bound by treaties and can use whatever it wants.
Profit
If these Chinese nuclear capabilities are realized, they will give Beijing greater international prestige, influence, power and freedom of action. They would give them political and military advantages over other countries — including the United States and Russia — and China’s regional rival India’s growing nuclear power.
Indeed, this development could provide China with the ability to exert influence, control and coercion in the diplomatic and security spheres.
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A soldier during a combat exercise of the 42nd Fleet of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy on January 31, 2023.
scenes
I. Limited Expansion of China’s Military Sphere and New Arms Control Regimes
Although Beijing is not currently bound by any nuclear arms control treaty, it may seek negotiations with Washington (and even Moscow) to limit the superpowers’ nuclear arsenals.
The Tripartite Nuclear Arms Control Treaty aims to limit the amount of nuclear stockpiles and the number and types of nuclear weapons delivery systems of the three parties.
In support of global nuclear disarmament efforts – including the 1972 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – such an agreement would reduce the trilateral stockpile currently set under the US-Russia New START Treaty (1,550 units).
From Beijing’s perspective, reducing Washington’s and Moscow’s arsenals below those specified in New START would eliminate the need to maintain the current levels of their nuclear forces. This would significantly reduce defense spending that could be used for other military modernization programs.
Summary
However, Beijing’s reluctance to engage in high-level discussions on nuclear arms control should be noted.
This resentment is with China, especially in the context of negotiations with Washington. Beijing’s fears about efforts to limit the growth of Chinese power, especially military power, should also be underscored.
Considering both issues, it must be said that a scenario of military expansion limited by the introduction of new arms control rules is unlikely.
II. China is an equal nuclear partner and new arms competitor
In the most likely scenario, China continues to build up its nuclear arsenal, achieving capabilities that match or exceed the size of operational US and Russian nuclear weapons.
Despite pleas from the international community, Beijing may refuse to enter into arms control talks with Washington or Moscow, fearing that entering into negotiations before achieving near-equality, equality or advantage. This would put China at a bargaining disadvantage, at least, and perhaps move Beijing into temporary or permanent nuclear and military inferiority.
Continuing to build up its nuclear power will also boost China’s international standing. This will strengthen their ability to influence the military, diplomatic, economic and information sectors.
Summary
The scenario in which China is perceived to become an equal nuclear partner is the result of Beijing building up its military capabilities.
This unprecedented shift in the global nuclear power hierarchy could bring not only instability, but also nuclear and conventional arms races and the proliferation of nuclear weapons beyond China, Russia, and the United States.