Danish military intelligence (Forsvarets Efterretningstjeneste, abbreviated FE; Military Intelligence Service) considers Russia to be “highly likely” to use military force to “challenge NATO countries”. Danish Defense Minister Trolls Lund Paulson announced this in parliament.
According to Danish intelligence, what does this interference by Moscow look like?
Russia will continue to pressure NATO countries by sending aircraft and warships to cross state borders. FE writes that Putin may even gather his army on the border of one of the NATO countries. They say the Kremlin will be wary of the matter – It will test the response and defense capabilities of European nations, but will not lead to direct war with the North Atlantic Alliance.
In other words, when talking about Russia's “military challenges” to NATO, Danish military intelligence does not mean open war, but actions below the threshold of armed conflict.
Intelligence services believe direct combat is 'currently unlikely', meaning that Denmark is not “currently” a serious military threat. The country's military intelligence believes Russia will use its military resources to challenge NATO countries, but not to prompt them to act under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. As a reminder, he says An attack on one alliance member is an attack on all of them.
According to Danish military intelligence officials, this does not change the fact that Russia is dangerous. Its willingness to take risky measures increased after Finland and Sweden decided to join NATO. The Kremlin wants to increase its military presence in the Baltic Sea region and in the northwest — even if it can't yet do so in the short term.
Flemming Splidsboel – a senior researcher on Russian relations at the Danish Institute of International Studies and an expert on Russia – said it was unlikely that Russia would try to seize any country's territory. In his opinion, “these actions could paralyze NATO's decision-making processes, threaten cohesion and weaken the alliance's will.”
Denmark's army chief, General Fleming Lentfer, also warns against ignoring the Russian threat. In his opinion, however Two years of war in Ukraine Moscow is stronger than expected. After all, Putin is converting the Russian economy to a purely war mode and is very advanced in this process, which is why the country is already building up combat power and increasing supplies at an astonishingly rapid pace.
On this basis, he concludes, Denmark has only a few years to adapt its armed forces to the standards of modern forces.
Denmark is not the only country considering the possibility of Russian aggression. Concerns are also emerging in other parts of Europe. In early January 2024, Sweden's political and military officials – including the country's supreme commander of the armed forces – appealed to the community to prepare for an attack from Russia. They said “War in Ukraine is a step, not the end goal” Among the Kremlin's ambitions is to establish a zone of interests and destroy the current world order.
Similar voices appeared in Norway. Eirik Kristoffersen – the commander of the local army – said the country has several years to strengthen its defense capabilities and prepare for a possible invasion from the Kremlin.
That information… Bundeswehr's secret plans to prepare for Russia's joint attack on NATO leaked. Gheorghita Vlad, chief of the general staff of the Romanian Armed Forces, added that “President Putin's policy will escalate.” Most military officials insist there is no risk of direct, conventional aggression by Russia against NATO countries in the future — they warn against hybrid operations and call for increased defense capabilities.
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