Elections in Turkey. Whose victory would be better for Poland?

The first round of presidential elections will be held in Turkey on May 14. We also know the results of the parliamentary elections. The general candidate of the majority of opposition parties, Democrat Kemal Kilicdaroglu is ahead of Recep Erdogan in the polls. Prime Minister since 2003 and President since 2014.

However, according to projections, none of them will get more than 50 percent support. – It is necessary to win the election in the first round. The second round will be held on May 28. Poland should watch this election closely.

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The last election in Turkey was full of unexpected twists and scandals. One of the presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, withdrew his candidacy on Thursday after his sex tape was leaked.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a poll leader and opposition leader and opponent of the current president, blamed the Russians for the leak. This is important because both the opposition and Erdogan’s party still support cooperation with Russia, but the former has a more nuanced view of international relations than the “more visible” and current head of state.

– Erdogan’s authoritarian tendencies and his unorthodox monetary policy undermined the confidence of investors and rating agencies Turkey raised interest rates on new foreign loans. Debt servicing costs have roughly doubled since 2019, PIE economists noted.

Whoever wins the presidential election will have a tough task ahead of them – They add.

Within a dozen or so months, we’ve seen three central bankers. An interest rate cut in an era of several tens of percent inflation is an economic anomaly. That is why opposition parties are boldly raising such issues Politicization of government institutions, clean-up in the Bureau of Statistics or Central Bank Balzer explains.

Bringing Istanbul closer to Brussels also gives great hope, Erdogan’s policy has been different over the years. Suffice it to recall, for example, Turkey’s threat over the wave of migrants after the war in Syria, or the openly anti-EU rhetoric.

However, it is the economy that occupies the Turkish mind. That’s why Adam Michalski from the Center for Eastern Studies (OSW) called for a vote on Sunday “Elections of the century”, because it depends on them.

As he explains, the main reason for the economic crisis is over the Bosphorus State financial problemDue to, among others, the aforementioned monetary policy of the authorities (low interest rates) and shortage of foreign exchange reserves in the banking system.

It is the inability to stabilize the value of the national currency and High inflation, which will reach 85 percent by 2022., and in March of this year – 50 percent. The result has been a continuing rise in the cost of living, partially mitigated by raising the minimum wage, introducing food subsidies, and controlling housing rent prices. In macro economic and social dimensions, the challenge is to eliminate the effects of the earthquake. In southeastern Turkey, the damage was estimated at US$100 billion. The expert points out.

The opposition is trying to beat all this, which is a very difficult task. Why?

– These choices are not equal – Adam Palzer tells us that Erdogan-led officials have created pro-government organizations to drain the government and undermine democratic principles.

The OSW expert agrees with him. He explained that the President’s party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Has a well-developed network of business and personal relationships. These individuals and institutions came from the new Islamic elite Under the present government they have accumulated considerable wealth.

According to Adam Michalski, they are also responsible More than 20 percent of GDP. The part of the Turkish economy that depends on them is also a source of financial and political support for Erdogan.

– Business circles close to power also control about 90 percent. Turkish media scene This gives the AKP the ability to direct the flow of information and impose a political agenda. Thanks to this, among others, Michalski says, the government was able to avoid widespread media criticism of its handling of the earthquake’s aftermath.

Experts point out that there is a scenario on the Turkish table which, if implemented, would be bad for all political actors in our part of the world.

“Whether one side or the other wins, either side can take to the streets to undermine the outcome of the election. what else, If the current president fails, a large number of Turks will have access to guns, which could lead to bloody riots. This leads to economic instability. Its consequences will not be without significance for Turkish trading partners. Adam Palzer asserts that, according to purchasing power parity, Turkish GDP is twice that of Poland.

The OSW analyst agrees with this approach. – in a more negative version of the trend of violent post-election protests and the brutal response of the security forces Turkey will face a serious crisis that will threaten the stability and control of the entire state, as well as further tensions, primarily with the West. It will also be a test of the political neutrality of the military, which has a tradition of interventions and political and military coups (including 1960, 1980, 1997) in the modern history of the state – concludes Adam Michalski.

Damian Szymański, journalist and deputy editor of money.pl