To please China, Russian leaders will be forced to accept unfavorable trade negotiations, support China’s position on the international stage, and, at Beijing’s request, moderate relations with countries such as India and Vietnam, Kapuw writes.
The author notes that the outbreak of the war in Ukraine presented China with a difficult dilemma in choosing which position to take in the invasion. Russia’s support would cost them economic sanctions and loss of access to Western markets and technology. On the other hand, condemning its actions would strain relations between the two countries.
Beijing views its relationship with Moscow as important for several reasons. First, the economies of Russia and China complement each other perfectly. Russia is rich in natural resources but needs technology and investment, China can provide technology and investment but lacks natural resources. Russia is also a major source of arms for China. In addition, the two countries have similar approaches to many global issues and avoid criticizing each other on human rights, Kabujev explains.
China has not taken a critical stance on Russia’s actions, rather to avoid possible economic repercussions from the West, the decision to comply with restrictions imposed on sanctions and US export restrictions – writes the expert. He added that many Chinese companies have frozen their projects in Russia and that state-owned energy companies are reluctant to seize Russian assets sold by Western companies for fear that they could become subject to US sanctions in the future.
“However, compliance with the sanctions laws does not mean that Beijing does not support Moscow economically. China has taken advantage of the disruption caused by the war by positioning itself as an alternative market for Russian goods previously traded on the European market. It is taking full advantage of the opportunity to buy Russian goods for pennies through short-term contracts subject to sanctions.”
– Khabuev insists.
While Europe cuts itself off from Russia’s power and energy resources, the Kremlin is forced to redirect exports to Asia, particularly China. The author writes. Exports from Russia to China have increased by 48.8 percent in the last seven months, he said. $61.45 billion. However, during the same period, imports from China to Russia increased by 5.2 percent. $ 36.3 billion.
“Russia Becomes a Giant” Iran’s Eurasia”
– Isolated, small and technologically backward economy due to hostility towards the West, but still not considered large and important. “China will become Russia’s largest external partner, the main buyer of its exports, the largest source of imports and the main diplomatic partner,” Kabuzhev predicted.
Moscow’s reliance on Beijing, he says, would give China a huge advantage and could force Russian officials to make many concessions.. For example, in negotiations over a new pipeline linking China to gas fields in eastern Siberia, Beijing could implement a price formula favorable to Chinese customers.
“As long as China provides liquidity to support the regime and Russia’s confrontation with the West, the Kremlin will accede to their demands.”
– The teacher predicts.
He points out that Beijing will not save Moscow and significantly help modernize the Russian economy, but it will be enough to maintain a friendly regime while pursuing its state interests in the Kremlin. By buying Russian natural resources at low prices and expanding the market for Chinese technology.
Given China’s growing influence, they can get something from Russia that was unthinkable a year ago – access to advanced weapons and its programs, access to the Russian Arctic, assurance of China’s security in Central Asia, and Russian support. In the conflicts between China and its neighbors – the expert emphasizes.
“As a result, the Kremlin will protect itself from Western pressure at the cost of losing a high degree of its strategic autonomy. This issue is likely to persist beyond Putin’s rule.”
Capuve concludes.
Source: PAP, niezalezna.pl