July industrial output, fixed assets, retail data

BEIJING – China reported July data that was widely missed than expected. Nor did the NBS report include youth unemployment figures, which have risen to record levels in recent months.

Retail sales rose 2.5% in July from a year ago, below expectations for a 4.5% increase, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

Industrial production rose 3.7% in July from a year ago, less than the 4.4% increase analysts had expected.

Fixed-asset investment rose 3.4% for the first seven months of the year compared to a year ago, less than the 3.8% expected by a Reuters poll.

The urban unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June.

And unlike previous reports, the latest release did not break down unemployment by age. The 16-24 age group saw unemployment well above the overall unemployment rate, reaching a record high of 21.3% in June.

A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said the bureau has suspended issuance of youth unemployment figures due to economic and social changes, and is re-evaluating its methodology.

On a yearly basis, real estate investment was down 8.5% year-over-year as of July, which is a larger drop than it was in June.

Online retail sales of physical goods rose 6.6% in July from a year ago, slowing sharply from double-digit increases in recent months, according to CNBC’s official data calculations.

Retail sales saw the largest increase of 15.8% in retail sales, while sports and leisure products saw an increase of 2.6% year-on-year. Big-ticket items such as cars and home appliances saw sales decline in July compared to a year ago.

Jewelry experienced a 10% decrease in sales during that period.

Retail sales posted the slowest growth since declining in December, according to official data.

The Census Bureau noted a “complicated and complicated” overseas and domestic situation, and “insufficient domestic demand”.

“We must intensify the role of macro policies in regulating the economy and make unremitting efforts to expand domestic demand, enhance confidence and prevent risks.” said the office In an English version.

After an initial recovery from the epidemic earlier this year, the Chinese economy is facing lingering problems and slowing global demand for its products.

Exports fell 14.5% year-on-year in July, after declining 12.4% in June. Factory activity shrank for the fourth consecutive month in July, according to an official survey.

Domestic demand has been muted outside of summer tourism. Imports fell 12.4% year-on-year in July, and were mostly down month-on-month from the same period in 2022.

The consumer price index fell in July, adding to concerns about deflation.

The burden on the economy is the ongoing slump in the huge real estate sector. Problems with the property market have come to the fore again with the Country Garden development now on the brink of default.

Senior leaders signaled in late July a shift away from his crackdown on real estate speculation. The authorities announced a set of measures to boost consumption, private sector investment and foreign investment.

But the general approach to additional stimulus has been cautious, particularly in the real estate sector.

“Beijing has already done some things to ease tensions in the real estate sector, but it has been too slow and too little, in our view,” Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, said in a note on Monday.

“We believe that at some point in time Beijing will have to take more measures to stop the downward spiral,” he added.

Factory activity rose in July to its highest level since March, while the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, actually posted its fastest July increase since January.

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