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Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar Hamas wants a cease-fire — at least, that’s the message Egyptian and Qatari mediators have been conveying to Israeli officials in the final days before a crucial summit later this week, an Israeli source familiar with the matter said.
But whether the Israeli prime minister wants this remains in doubt.
Two Israeli sources said Netanyahu’s allies have told reporters and other government officials that the Israeli prime minister is willing to make a deal, regardless of its impact on his ruling coalition. But Israel’s security establishment remains more skeptical of Netanyahu’s willingness to make a deal in the face of fierce opposition from far-right ministers in his coalition.
“Nobody knows what Bibi wants,” an Israeli source said, referring to Netanyahu by his nickname.
Netanyahu will clearly face a mountain of pressure this week from the United States to agree to a ceasefire and release the hostages.
But even as mediators told Israel that Sinwar wanted to reach a deal, Hamas on Sunday expressed doubts about its participation in the next round of ceasefire negotiations scheduled for Thursday, saying it had asked mediators to implement a ceasefire plan based on previous ceasefire talks such as the one put forward by U.S. President Joe Biden and the U.N. Security Council in July.
Hamas said in its statement: “Out of concern and responsibility towards our people and their interests, the movement calls on the mediators to present a plan to implement what they presented to the movement and agreed upon on July 2, 2024, based on Biden’s vision and the UN Security Council resolution, and to oblige the occupation to do so, instead of going to other negotiating rounds or putting forward new proposals.”
Hamas said its latest stance was influenced by an Israeli attack on a school in Gaza on Saturday that killed at least 93 people, according to local officials.
The Israeli source said that American officials made it clear to their Israeli counterparts that they believe the time has come to reach a ceasefire agreement in order to avoid a wider regional war.
The Forum of Families of Prisoners and Missing Persons, a powerful voice in Israel, called on Israel and Hamas to finalize the prisoner exchange agreement and cease fire.
“The agreement is the only way to bring all the hostages home. Time is running out. The hostages have nothing left to spare. The agreement must be signed now!” the forum said in a statement on Thursday.
At the same time, Netanyahu’s coalition partners have made clear that they do not want Israel to reach an agreement with Hamas.
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Friday described the proposed ceasefire agreement as a “surrender deal.”Writing on social media platform X “I call on the Prime Minister not to fall into this trap and not to agree to any slight deviation from the red lines he recently set, which are also very problematic,” he said.
White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby criticized Smotrich’s comments, saying, “His arguments are completely wrong.”
But Netanyahu’s political future depends largely on his coalition partners — several of whom have already threatened to pull out of the government and cause its collapse if he agrees to the deal.
The Knesset (Israel’s parliament) is currently in recess, which would make it difficult — if not impossible — for Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to bring down the current government. Israeli sources have indicated that Netanyahu may call elections if a ceasefire is reached, which would allow him to control the timing of such elections.
Mediators are scheduled to meet with the Israeli and Hamas negotiating teams in Cairo or Doha this week. But the Israeli source said negotiations were already underway with technical delegations working “around the clock” on key details ahead of Thursday’s meeting.
The talks come at a particularly tense time in the Middle East. Assassinations of prominent figures in Lebanon and Iran in recent weeks have raised fears of retaliatory attacks that could lead to a wider conflict.
Last month, Israel killed Fuad Shukr, the top military commander of Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group. The next day, Israel is widely believed to have assassinated Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, in what is seen as a major embarrassment to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, which were hosting Haniyeh.
Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement in this incident.
There are indications that Iran will reconsider the scope and timing of its response to Israel if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, a prospect that has put additional pressure on Israel to reach an agreement in order to avoid the risk of a full-scale regional war.
Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza who Israel accuses of being one of the masterminds behind the deadly October 7 terror attack, has been appointed the group’s new political bureau chief following Haniyeh’s assassination.
Sinwar has not been seen in public since October 7 and is believed to be hiding in tunnels dug under Gaza. Haniyeh played a key role in the ceasefire talks, but Sinwar’s role has been more limited, given the difficulty of communicating with the outside world.
The talks come after an Israeli air strike on a school and mosque killed dozens, sparking international outrage. Israel said it was targeting a Hamas command center and killed several fighters.
US Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, said on Saturday that “too many” civilians had been killed in Gaza, adding that the deal “must happen now.”
This story was updated with additional developments on Sunday.