At a meeting on Monday, Mr. Erdogan and Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, agreed to focus on migration and refugees, economic ties and the prospect of opening up visa-free travel to the EU for Turks, a senior EU official said. . The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to reporters, described the meeting as a change to a more positive tone.
Turkey is officially a candidate for membership in the European Union, a status it has held for two decades. The process was practically frozen in 2018, cementing a sort of enemy situation between the bloc and its neighbor to the east. The two are deeply attached, but their relationship is strained.
Most EU countries consider Turkey’s bid to join the EU dead — but they did not push to make this official out of concern that doing so would further alienate Mr. Erdogan and make improvements in key policy areas such as energy cooperation and migration more difficult. Here’s a look at the history of Turkey’s bid to join the European Union and where it is now.
Why was Türkiye’s candidacy frozen?
Türkiye applied to become a member of the then smaller European Union in 1987; It was granted candidate status in 1999 and negotiations to join it began in 2005. Talks for EU accession are usually lengthy, lasting on average about 10 years. In the case of Turkey, they have officially lasted for 18 years, although in practice they have been suspended for five of those.
Negotiations are organized into chapters – or areas of policy – as the candidate country tries to meet EU laws and standards, usually through drastic reforms.
Membership talks hinge on a set of principles, known as the Copenhagen political criteria, such as respect for human rights, democracy and well-functioning institutions, and the rule of law guaranteed by free and independent courts. This is the cornerstone of membership in the club.
The European Union suspended accession talks with Turkey in 2018, citing the country’s lack of progress on human rights and the rule of law. It came after Mr. Erdogan’s leadership took a more authoritarian turn in response to a failed coup attempt in 2016, with thousands of public sector workers dismissed and hundreds of organizations closed.
Can Türkiye’s bid to join the European Union be revived?
EU diplomats believe Turkey is unlikely to join the EU anytime soon, if ever, saying the country’s standards on the rule of law and respect for human rights have worsened in recent years.
Turkey’s hostile relations with its neighbors Greece and Cyprus, both members of the European Union, pose another major problem. While both countries are members of NATO, Turkish officials, including Mr. Erdogan himself, frequently question their shared border and say Turkey is entitled to more territory, angering Greece.
Turkey also retains control and forces in the northern part of the island of Cyprus – which it invaded in 1974, claiming it was intervening to protect the Turkic-speaking minority. The international community does not recognize its administration there, nor does Turkey recognize the Republic of Cyprus, a member of the European Union and the United Nations that governs the southern two-thirds of the island.
Efforts to resolve the Cyprus issue, one of the most intractable frozen disputes in the world, have stalled after several attempts. In order to be allowed to join the European Union, or even to make real progress in this direction, Turkey is likely to recognize the Republic of Cyprus.
But what is also clear is that the European Union no longer has any desire to expand eastward. Allowing Turkey to join would mean integrating a large Islamic country into the bloc and moving its external borders to Syria, Iran and Iraq.
What could happen next?
Experts say that the current framework of the EU-Turkey relationship, which still centers around Turkey’s candidacy, creates false expectations and loses out to both sides, arguing that it would be better to create a new type of special relationship between the bloc and its neighbor. .
But the EU and Turkey have their reasons for sticking to the current framework. EU diplomats who see Turkey as key to managing migration and other major political challenges believe that even if the process does not lead to full accession, it could be a useful path, linking Ankara with Brussels and providing a structure for talks.
If only they spoke!
What is expected to happen next is a re-engagement, especially with regard to general communication, between the bloc and Turkey. The senior EU official said the EU would issue a report on the future of the relationship.
Officials said there were no illusions about how difficult some parts of the bloc’s relationship with Turkey would be, but the meeting still felt like a moment to reset the tone toward more positivity.
A change of course in EU-Turkey relations would help Mr. Erdogan argue that he has improved Turkey’s relations with the EU, while also enabling the EU to bolster NATO unity by aiding Sweden’s accession, helping achieve his lofty goal of supporting Ukraine. against Russian aggression.