Rebellion of the Wagner group. ISW: Prigozhin miscalculated

Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, is requesting a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. Otherwise “go to Moscow” he threatens.

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See also: Brutal and effective. General Pacek points out Putin’s plan

The company thinks so Prigozhin wants to remove the leadership of the Ministry of Defense from power by forceBut he probably meant the command of the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don, but possibly also the command in Moscow.

ISW insisted An armed attack by the Wagner group on the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don will have a significant impact on the war in Ukraine.Rostov not only houses the general staff of the Southern Military District, where the 58th Army plays an important role in the defense of the aggressor against the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but also the command center of the entire group of the Russian invasion. forces.

According to the institute, Prigogine’s initiation of armed rebellion was the culmination of his efforts to maintain control over his armed forces, and the current actions would determine the “to be or not” of the Wagnerian leader.

“Prygozhin Misjudges Putin to Back Down”

ISW pointed out that Prigozhin has long crossed the “red line”. Acceptable criticism of Russian officials in the media. As noted, he may have thought that the Kremlin’s need for the Wagner Group in Ukraine would protect him from impunity.

Prigozhin may have miscalculated and called for an armed uprising, miscalculating that Putin would back down., given his once tense relations with the Ministry of Defense and Shoigu. However, such an event is highly unlikely, as Putin has recently aligned himself very strongly with the Ministry of Defense.So far the Kremlin’s response to Prigozhin’s bluster has been one of surprise and opposition to him.” According to a think tank analysis.

According to the Institute of Internal Affairs, while Prigozhin criticizes the Kremlin’s justification for the war against Ukraine, it cannot be denied that he did not reject the legitimacy of the invasion. The head of the mercenary force insisted in previous statements that it was a “holy war against those who offended the Russian nation.”

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PAP

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