Russia-Ukraine war. Putin wants what we fear

• – Russia’s goal is to change power in Ukraine and bring the whole country under control. This does not mean that the annexation, it will be difficult in terms of the general anti-Russian mood among the Ukrainians. However, Onet’s spokesman says it is possible for Russians to enter Kiev and establish a puppet government there.
• Kononzuk believes that Putin does not appreciate the social factor and makes the mistake of not expecting opposition from ordinary Ukrainians.
• – In recent years, the diagnoses of Warsaw, Vilnius or Kiev have sometimes raised smiles in the West as a sign of anti-Russian paranoia. Today, as you can see, the OSW analyst comments that the perception of Russia by our part of Europe is not a fear, but an illustration of reality.
• Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Long live

Ukasz Cieśla: A black scene has come true: Russia occupied independent Ukraine. What do you think will happen in the coming hours and days?

Wojciech Konończuk, Deputy Director of the Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw: Unfortunately, I will not mention any positive scenarios. For the next few days, I see only negativity. We can only give the status of being in black. Russia’s goal is to change power in Ukraine and bring the whole country under its control. This does not mean that the annexation, it will be difficult in terms of the general anti-Russian mood among the Ukrainians. However, it is possible for the Russians to enter Kiev and establish a puppet government there, while at the same time trying to capture the current authorities or forcibly flee. After all, President Putin unjustly accuses Ukrainians of committing crimes and genocide in Donbass. Declares that they will be judged and punished. On the other hand, the Russians are not likely to move easily. Kiev is a very Ukrainian, patriotic city. The Russians will face opposition from the armed forces and residents there. The question is how many people will die. How many soldiers and civilians? Although the Russians only announced attacks on military facilities, they were already known to shoot civilians.

Can Ukraine defend itself? Or it may be different: How long will Ukraine survive the Russian invasion?

It is obvious that Ukraine has an army with a relatively lower level of equipment and numbers than Russia. The Russians’ assumption is to break the Ukrainian forces as soon as possible, preferably in a few days. Russia’s attack on military infrastructure and airports is not a coincidence. They want to quickly destroy Ukraine’s military capability, hoping that Ukrainian society will be plunged into chaos and fear. However, I think the Russians will convert. In my opinion, Putin underestimates the social factor. The resistance of ordinary Ukrainians will be very significant. Ukrainian officials announced Thursday morning that anyone with a weapon could report it to the military commission and obtain it. Ukraine hopes for a speedy system of social security.

How do you feel about the West’s approach, which is mainly threatening sanctions and expressing its anger?

Western nations are in shock, which could lead to more severe sanctions. This would be tantamount to disconnecting Russia from the International Monetary Fund, viz. SWIFT (This is not currently happening) This will severely affect the economy and exclude Russia from global capital trade. However, the leaks show that many countries oppose such a decision. In these informal conversations, we are talking here about countries like Cyprus, Hungary, Italy and Germany. Next Obstacles They are about the largest Russian banks, the increase in the list of those on the embargo list and the reduction of diplomatic relations with Russia. However, NATO troops could not be expected to be sent to Ukraine. But Western nations will send more weapons to Ukraine for its military or guerrilla movement. Due to its location, Poland can play a key role in changing weapons.

Is it possible for war to spread beyond Ukraine? Vladimir Putin has already said that anyone who tries to intervene will face military retaliation and he will face unintended consequences. He said Russia was ready for anything.

Putin wants us to think that we are afraid of an unpredictable Russia. However, we are in a position where nothing can be set aside. However, the war leakage outside Ukraine is not a very realistic scenario, although I can only imagine the possibility of various Russian provocations, which is also of a military nature. I will focus too Belarus, a completely enslaved state, Depends on Russia. Belarus has become an occupier because it has made its territory available to Russian troops. According to international law, although Belarusian soldiers do not shoot Ukrainians, such action is aggressive. In addition, Lukashenko has increased his anti-Polish rhetoric in recent days. Therefore, I take into account that tensions and provocations may arise on our border with Russia or Belarus.

How will there be more fighting in Ukraine?

The Russians entered the country at a depth of about 60 km. They would like to enter Kiev. The question is how long Ukraine will defend itself. Russia will be stopped not only by sanctions, but also by powerful ones, because it was partly prepared for them, but by the opposition of the military and Ukrainian society. This will lead to a revision of Russia’s plans.

All this leads to a tragic end: our neighbors have a war started by Russia for no reason, and we as Western nations stand aside. In fact, the Ukrainians were left alone.

This is the sad truth. The West will not send its troops. Ukraine must fight alone in the undeclared war waged by Russia under the banner of “peace action”. In fact, it is an isolated invasion of Ukraine.

Is Putin’s goal to create Belarus-Ps from a state as enslaved as the Lukashenko regime?

Yes, Russia wants to change the goals of Ukrainian politics and have an impact on its political relations with the West. Capture this country. But Putin is not just playing for it, his goals are very ambitious. It is aimed at violating the security order in Europe, in particular Eastern part of NATO.

Do you agree that today the West is reaping the devastating effects of its misguided policies on the Russian and Putin governments?

I have no idea that Poland was innocent to Russia. However, if we talk about other countries, of course yes. Germanio Franco saw Russia not as it really is, but as they wanted it to be. I hope what is happening now will plunge European leaders into tragedy and open their eyes to the Russian threat. In recent years, the diagnoses of Warsaw, Vilnius or Kiev have sometimes raised smiles in the West as a sign of anti-Russian paranoia. Today, as you can see, the perception of Russia by our part of Europe is not a fear, but an interpretation of reality.

Is Vladimir Putin a madman or a brutal warrior who uses ruthless methods to pursue Russia’s geopolitical interests?

I think it follows Putin’s interests in Russia, yet it is far from the source of this state and society. His policy has poisoned Russian-Ukrainian relations for years. Russia occupied the independent Ukrainian state. You will justify the thesis that Putin is a madman, but he acts rationally. Of course, this is the rationale he particularly understood. His anti-Ukrainian rage affects a different view of reality than our judgments. He hopes there will not be a better moment if Russia does not regain influence in Ukraine. However, I think he underestimates the level of opposition in Ukrainian society.