- Putin and Trump are working in sync. Like they wink at each other across the ocean. They have one task – to surrender Ukraine, Piontkovsky believes
- The political scientist directly says that the Russian president is responsible for the death of Alexei Navalny. – He enjoys impunity rather than the fact of murder. He wants to spit on everyone and show that he can do anything – he judges
- – It is impossible to imagine what a psychological blow the loss of Crimea would be at the top of the Russian Federation. It will change everything – says Onet's interlocutor
- More important information can be found on the Onet home page
Maria Sipsiura, ONET: How do you think the situation will evolve on the front line in 2024?
Andriy Piontkowski: Ukraine's access to US aid is a key issue in predicting further developments in the situation. Ukraine continues its resistance valiantly. Of course, it has been getting help from partners, including the US, for two years now. But we've seen every US aid package beset by delays, protests and restrictions. If Kiev had the weapons it has today two years ago, the Russian army would have been defeated and destroyed long ago. Now a new threat has emerged.
The election campaign has begun in the United States, and Donald Trump has taken a decidedly pro-Russian stance. He treats the Republican Party like a mafia boss, intimidates senators and members of Congress, and blocks an aid package for Ukraine. A visit to Moscow by his court reporter, Tucker Carlson, apparently showed Putin and Trump working in sync with the future vice president. Like they wink at each other across the ocean. They have one task – to surrender Ukraine. There is a fierce battle going on in Washington today. And we cannot predict its outcome.
However, we are seeing integration of our European partners, which has not happened before.
Yes. There is also a positive side to Trump's negative actions. How quickly and profoundly attitudes toward war in Europe had changed. It finally understands that if Ukraine collapses, it is in real danger of being taken over by Putin's crowd. We see how quickly the financial aid and arms packages are growing. During the war, decisions are being made in the US Congress regarding Norway's transfer of 11 Nassams anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine. The Germans and French decided to surrender their arms. Denmark delivers its artillery to Ukraine. That's how it should be. This is what Europe needs to do now. She must drop all her weapons. After all, if Ukraine wins, there will be no threat to European security.
Europe has finally understood that we are talking about very serious issues. The conference in Munich was very active. She showed determination to take on Putin at any cost. Putin helped strengthen the pro-Ukrainian alliance in the West by committing a new crime – he killed Navalny. This tragedy, when his son's body was not released to the mother, made even Trump silent and did not comment on it in any way.
What is happening now in the US Senate is the most shameful moment in American history. It will be written in the textbooks as the biggest shame of the US Congress going on a two-week recess without accepting the decision to provide aid to Ukraine. This time the Russian army was on the offensive! As a result of this delay, the Russian army had already achieved a tactical victory by capturing Avdiivka.
This is certainly no mean feat for an army that two years ago threatened to overrun the country within two weeks and push NATO back thousands of kilometres. Now this army is proud because it occupies the whole of Avdivka. But all this comes at a heavy price. This is a great tragedy. People are still dying on the battlefield.
I am confident that the US Congress will pass legislation providing aid to Ukraine in early March. However, the most important thing is not the money, Europe can also provide that. But can't do without American weapons.
So I'd say we're celebrating the second anniversary of a full-scale invasion under sad circumstances. The responsibility rests with the Biden administration. After all, they waited too long to help. Of course, I think now that they are determined, the next aid package will be filled with the weapons they need to succeed. Ukraine can defeat Russia very quickly.
What do you say to that?
Ukraine does not have to destroy the enemy army on the entire front of thousands of kilometers. Russia has a weak point – Crimea. Ukraine has already driven the Russian Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol with its bare hands, not having an air force or a navy. 200 F-16s and 200 long-range missiles would allow Ukraine to drive the Russians out of Crimea and turn the tide of the war. After all, the loss of Crimea was Russia's biggest military blow. It was a huge political and psychological blow. Putin's regime will not tolerate this. So everything is in the hands of Europe and America.
Am I understanding correctly that you believe that Ukraine will receive a victory package in early March and that Crimea can be reclaimed later this year?
Yes. It's very easy. As I said, 200 aircraft and 200 long-range missiles will solve this problem.
Military situation in the Black Sea
We touched on Tucker Carlson's interview with Vladimir Putin. Then we talked about the murder of Alexei Navalny. In my opinion, Putin is trying to show that he does not want to stop and that there are no more red lines. Finally, we remember Joe Biden's statement promising consequences for Russia in the event of Navalny's death.
I totally agree. His campaign began by saying that Putin was not interested in killing Navalny. Earlier, the same campaign claimed that Putin was not interested in killing Politkovskaya and Nemtsov. And he was curious! This is the psychology of all maniacs and sadists. They always tried to prove their guilt and tell the world about it. It always gives them special pleasure. Putin almost shouts that he killed Navalny and nobody can do anything about it. He enjoys impunity rather than the fact of murder. Spit on everyone and show that you can do anything. And it is very easy to block him. Ukraine must win.
In one of your interviews, you have said that Trump's election victory is a threat to the entire world. Do I understand correctly that you are referring to Trump's statements about NATO and collective responsibility?
Trump hates Ukraine. Trump hates NATO. And he hates European leaders who didn't hide their emotions during his first term. The first thing he will do as president is cut off all aid to Ukraine, and NATO is an outdated organization that cannot guarantee security, so the US withdraws from it. I will use the war in Ukraine as an example. He would say that a new global security system is needed. Now the security of the world will be ensured by two great powers, America and Russia. And he will reach an agreement with Putin on everything.
There are two ways to avoid this situation. First Trump needs to end the war in Ukraine before he wins. The destruction of the Russian military by January 21, 2025 will be demonstrable. Secondly, The Republican establishment may focus on supporting Nikki Haley. In fact, there are now only three candidates: Biden, Trump and Haley. Neither Biden nor Trump can be the leader of the free world. This is only possible for Haley.
You talk about the consequences of the liberation of Crimea. But I don't really understand how this threatens Putin's rule. After all, after Prigozhin's murder, the Russian military elite is fully controlled by the president. Society will quietly fight for money in Ukraine. I don't see how the loss of Crimea would affect the Putin regime.
Eight months ago, Prigozhin was close to the Kremlin and could have captured it. That day, Putin panicked and flew to St. Petersburg. The contradictions that led to Prigogine's rebellion did not disappear.
For example, let's look at how the mobilized women's movement is growing. They go through their own evolution just like Prigogine. The latter began by criticizing Gerasimov and Shoigu. The day before the riots, he said there was no threat of a full-scale invasion of Donbass by Russia.
Mothers and wives of conscripts go through the same process. First they asked to send someone else to the front. Now they are chanting anti-war slogans.
It is simply impossible to imagine what a psychological blow the loss of Crimea would be at the top of the Russian Federation. This will change everything. I think this will end the war.
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