The Ukrainian offensive was predicted from the startOn September 6, the Ukrainians’ goal was to reach the Oskul River, which runs through the eastern part of the Kharkiv region. However, no one predicted how quickly Russian security would collapse across the entire region. There was a massive exodus even from those areas where the Ukrainians had not attacked.
A very noble omission
As a result, during the entire offensive, which lasted about a week, there was no serious fighting. Only during the first two days of the operation did the Russians put up stiff resistance in the city of Berdyansk. However, it did not help them much, because to the north of them, on a front about 30 kilometers long, Ukrainian troops swept away the enemy. Highly mobile groups of special forces and motorized regiments in light armored vehicles entered the hole drilled by artillery and heavy mechanized troops. In a textbook fashion, they dropped behind enemy lines into what was called an “operating space” and began wreaking havoc and destruction.
Many ambushed Russian columns and convoys believing they were moving into safe territory. One after another the Ukrainians rushed in before the Russians could organize any defense. At the same time, weak reserves thrown in by the Russian command to bring the situation under control could be destroyed or dispersed by artillery before they could threaten the lighter Ukrainian troops. The Russian Air Force, in the confusion, could not tell where its forces were and where the enemy was. Therefore, it again showed some effectiveness and despite the theoretically convenient situation to inflict heavy losses on the Ukrainians, it could not be done.
On September 11, the Russians withdrew from most of the Kharkiv region. As of today, the Ukrainians have still freed some land at the very bottom of the map Photo courtesy of Militaryland.net
The rapid advance of the Ukrainians and the reports of the next towns they occupied caused panic in the Russian ranks. A large group of Russian forces in the Izium region, south of the main Ukrainian strike zone, is at risk of encirclement. As a result, on the third or fourth day of the attack, the Russians began to panic and run away with cars and other light vehicles, abandoning heavy equipment. Next, symbolic occupation troops from the area north of the Ukrainian breakthrough and those holding the front north of Kharkiv began to rush. As a result, within a week, the Russians gave up most of the territory they controlled in the entire region.
An animation by a Polish internet user, which shows the general trend of the Ukrainian offensive very well, and allows you to understand the reasons for the escape of Russian troops in the Izium area.
Currently, the front line is stationed at the Oskił River. Various reports of Ukrainians crossing the border into the occupied Luhansk region have not been reliably confirmed. It is difficult to say whether they did not try because they no longer had the strength, or whether the Russians resisted their efforts. On the other hand, the fighting continues further south, already in the Donbass, in the area of the city of Siman, located near Tonik from Oskila. If the Ukrainians could catch up with the surrounding areas, they would bypass the Oscillin barrier and have a good bridgehead to attack further east. So far, however, there is no sign of rapid progress by the Ukrainians.
So the situation in the area of the latest attack is now relatively stable. The Ukrainians are focused on taking control of the areas taken from the Russians, regrouping troops, and collecting abandoned Russian weapons. And he has a lot. To date, civilian analysts monitoring photos published by Ukrainian soldiers and journalists have identified more than a hundred tanks, about 200 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, and several hundred heavy vehicles, from self-propelled artillery, to command and communication vehicles, to off-road trucks.
A whole pool of abandoned T-80 tanks
This proves once again that only theoretically acquired equipment would be enough to arm about two regiments. Russia Major arms supplier to Ukraine. The booty count continues as new photos continue to emerge. The Russians simply fled, leaving behind a large amount of equipment and not caring about its destruction. In return, most of them escaped with their lives and health, as the Russian army does not seem to have suffered serious losses as a result of the fighting. Thousands of refugees, however, have little or no combat value at present. Most of the troops in the region of the Ukrainian counteroffensive will have to be reformed or reconstructed by the Russians.
No shocks in Gerson
Things are less complicated for the Ukrainians in the Kherson region, the second major region of the war. The Ukrainian army has been attacking the Russians for more than two weeks, but with limited success so far, despite suffering significant losses. Over the past week, there has been no significant progress by the Ukrainians, although there has been no shortage of speculation that the Russians are retreating towards the Dnieper. Even the Ukrainian military officially says it is negotiating the mass surrender of some troops defending themselves in the area, but so far nothing has come of it.
Record of destruction of Ukrainian IFV-1 in Kherson region. Not sure when
The Russians are clearly in a difficult situation. The Ukrainians are putting pressure on them at the front, while systematically attacking inland. Especially the Dnieper crossings, permanent bridges have been damaged and are now in the form of boats, barges and pontoon bridges. The materials for this purpose will be transported by helicopters. The Russians are so desperate that they even launched missile attacks on the Ingulec River dam in the Kryvyi Rih region. They managed to damage it and cause a flood wave, which must have already rolled into the Ukrainian crossroad a hundred kilometers downstream in the Philohyrka region. However, there is no information on what effect this had. Even if it washes them off to some extent, putting in new ones won’t be much of a problem.
The situation in the Kherson region. Map since September 11th, but no major changes till date Photo courtesy of Militaryland.net
In general, Russian troops stubbornly hold their positions and sell skins very dearly, although there is no possibility of a significant improvement in their situation. As long as the Ukrainians do not suffer such losses, they must stop the attacks. Although they could always draw additional forces from this region, it was an ideal place to inflict heavy losses on the Russians when their defenses were finally breached. Due to the situation on the Dnieper the Russians could not easily bring up reinforcements. We may have to wait a few more weeks to find out who will last longer.
pushes the other way
In the Donbass, fighting has been similar since July. The Russians are stubbornly attacking the Ukrainian strongholds in the eastern part of Pakmut and Soledar. In the past week, they managed to take the entire village of Kotema near the first city. After about a month of fighting. The gain was that they advanced about two kilometers in this sector and took an important hill. Elsewhere, their repeated attacks did not produce this result.
nearby Donetsk To the west, fighting continues in the Ukrainian fortress town of Avdiyivka. The effects remain unchanged for several weeks. The front doesn’t really move. Significantly, however, a video of a small Ukrainian counterattack attempt was released this week. In particular, it was lost in August in the area of the village of Piski. However, the Ukrainians failed and lost two tanks.
In Zaporizhia Division, the situation remains unchanged. Artillery fire, local skirmishes and repeated suggestions that this might be the place where the Ukrainians would surprise the Russians and attack. Such reports have been surfacing for months, and there is still silence in Zaporizhia.
Russia has few people
The fighting in the Donbass and the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region give a sense of how differently the two sides are waging war. The Russians attack the wall with no finesse, hoping to breach it, and sometimes they manage to do so, albeit at great cost. Ukrainians are looking for an opportunity and a way to win at the lowest cost. Russians use their lives and equipment to reach targets X and Y on the map, Ukrainians try to conserve these resources as much as possible even at the cost of not reaching points X and Y. Chersonia.
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However, the Russian method has a major weakness. Well, Russia doesn’t have enough soldiers to throw up front right now. It’s just an empty stereotype. It is quite the opposite. Russians are the least populated. And these are of very little value as infantry. Among other things, it allowed the Ukrainians to achieve such a spectacular victory in the Kharkiv region. The Russians lacked the men to man the defense lines there, for they had long ago sent valuable troops into the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.
The only comprehensive solution to this problem would be a textbook mobilization, which we wrote in the spring. But Vladimir Putin For political reasons, it clearly does not want to order. Half or even a quarter of the measures implemented in response will not save the situation. According to the Ukrainians, the new 3rd Army Corps, created with the luxury of tens of thousands of men on paper, is sent into battle after very short training and pieces to plug holes at the front. Recruitment is also going on in prisons. This week, a recording of a speech by Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of the de facto leaders of the mercenary Wagner group, was released. This ally of Putin instigated the prisoners with amnesty, after each completed a six-month stint at the front. He defined the following three basic needs: Surrender or withdrawal (suicide in a hopeless situation) Awareness of inhibition. alcohol and drugs, and prohibition of robbery and rape. Of course some of the prisoners go for such a deal. However, it is highly doubtful that the Russians would replenish the reduced troops in this way.