The Dow Jones dropped 400 points at the end of a busy week of trading on Wall Street

We expect a recession in the first quarter of 2023, says Citi's Christine Butterley

Stocks fell on Friday, capping a volatile week of trading, a day after posting a historic high as investors digested inflation expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 405 points, or 1.35%, but is still on track to end the week higher after Thursday’s gains. The S&P 500 is down 2.16%, on course to finish the week lower. The Nasdaq Composite is down 2.71%, weighed down by Tesla and Lucid Motors’ losses, both of which are down more than 5%.

Stocks fell to session lows after a University of Michigan consumer survey showed inflation expectations were rising, sentiments the Federal Reserve will likely be watching closely. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index led the declines as growth firms are more sensitive to higher interest rates.

Meanwhile, bond yields rose, with 10-year US Treasuries rising to 4% for the second time in two days as investors react to rising inflation expectations.

Markets fell throughout the week as investors weighed new inflation data that will inform the Federal Reserve as it continues to raise interest rates to cool price increases. On Thursday, stocks experienced a major turnaround. The Dow ended Thursday’s session 827 points higher after dropping more than 500 points at its lowest level on the day. The S&P 500 rose 2.6% to break its six-day losing streak, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.2%.

Thursday saw the fifth-largest intraday reversal from the all-time low of the S&P 500, and the fourth-largest reversal for the Nasdaq, according to SentimenTrader.

The moves followed the release of Consumer Price Index, a headline inflation reading in the US came in higher than expected for September. Initially, this weighed heavily on the markets as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve to continue its aggressive plan to raise interest rates. But they later ignored these concerns.

However, persistent inflation remains an issue for the Federal Reserve and investor concerns about central bank policy tightening.

Global wealth management UBS writes: “With core CPI continuing to move in the wrong direction and labor market strength, conditions are not in place as pivotal to Fed policy, which will be one of the conditions for a sustainable stock market recovery.” Chief Investment Officer Mark Heffel in a note on Friday. “Furthermore, as inflation continues to rise for longer and the Federal Reserve increases, the risk increases that the cumulative effect of policy tightening will push the US economy into recession, undermining corporate earnings expectations.”

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