There are three scenarios for the attack on Ukraine. Among them, the full-scale offensive of Russia

Diplomatic efforts have not eased tensions on the Ukrainian-Russian border, exposing the gap between Russia and the West, the international politically-focused newspaper estimates.

Putin aims to completely eliminate the post-Cold War defense system in Europe and withdraw the basic international treaties that guarantee the right of governments to self-determination – the State Department writes that the United States, its allies and partners will never accept it.

He insists that when analyzing Moscow’s moves, its ultimate goals must be taken into account. According to the newspaper, this is to turn Ukraine into a failed state – by the way Weakening its military capability and internal instability. This will prevent the emergence of a stable democracy and a strong economy in this country, which will encourage Russian citizens to seek change in their own country. In the face of falling Moscow’s influence on Ukrainian politics The newspaper notes that this goal can only be achieved by military force.

The scene first analyzed was annexed by Donbass Russia, which was occupied by its dependent separatists. Or recognizing the independence of the self-proclaimed republics operating there (granting them the same status as the separatist regions of Abkhazia or South Ossetia – Georgia). The press estimates that the purpose of these measures is to force a diplomatic solution to the current crisis, which will prevent further military expansion and at the same time help Moscow announce its victory.

However, these moves Does not provide lasting benefits to Russia, He writes, confirming the current situation and preventing significant interference in Ukraine’s internal policy. It could also mean strengthening NATO’s eastern part – the Kremlin wants to avoid.

The second option is a limited Russian invasion and occupation of areas in eastern Ukraine. Including Mariupol – a major Ukrainian port on the Sea of ​​Azov – and Kharkiv – a major urban and industrial center. In the most ambitious assumption, the letter states that Russian forces will attempt to build a corridor connecting occupied Crimea with Russian territory or carry out a landing operation to capture Odessa.

Ukraine will lose access to important ports, and Russia will solve its problems in providing Crimea, the State Department says. He points out, however, that such an operation would require the involvement of all Russian forces around Ukraine and the occupation of occupied territories, which would be costly for Moscow and weaken power in Kiev, but would not lead. To the fall of the state.

“Therefore, the third and most likely scenario is Russia’s full-scale offensive. By using land, air and naval forces in all directions of the attack “- we read in the magazine. In this variant, Ukraine will attack from the north, east and south, from the territory of Russia, Donbass and Crimea. Prevent.

Russia’s goal is not permanent occupation or capture of large cities, but control and protection of routes, maintenance of supplies and military units, key infrastructure, military plants and “critical materials for the national identity and morale of Ukrainians”. Important government buildings and the Independence Square (Maidan) in the city – the site of the Revolution of Dignity in 2013 and early 2014, after which Russia occupied Crimea, and with its support the separatists captured Donbass.

In such a variation, the newspaper lists that Russia will make extensive use of long-range artillery, short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. Completes it Such attacks could kill tens of thousands of people and cause chaos and a humanitarian catastrophe And the physical abolition of the Ukrainian civil and political order.

“If such a Russian plan is successful, the attacks will paralyze the Ukrainian government, military and economic infrastructure – all key points Making Ukraine a failed state“- Abbreviation” Foreign Affairs “.