Business Insider cites the opinions of several experts indicating that Ukraine is not yet lost. Michael Goffman, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment, said Ukraine should take a “hold, build, strike” approach.
According to him, during the “capturing” phase, Ukraine should dig in and defend the front line enough to destroy the Russian forces. If the defensive forces continue to resist Russia, it will weaken the attackers.
– By maintaining the frontline, Ukraine can “expand” its military, rebuilding, training and expanding its internal defense sector, and with the support of Western allies. The “strike” element involves attacking Russia's weak points. Creating capabilities and opportunities for further offensive actions of Ukraine – the expert explained.
In the best case scenario, Ukraine could take the initiative next year. In the worst-case scenario, it can still effectively defend itself, and Russia can achieve its military goals only by 2025 or 2026.
Ukraine must defend itself
In turn, Henry L. Emma Ashford, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, believes that Ukraine currently lacks the capability to carry out offensive operations and therefore should focus on defense to prevent the Russian Federation from seizing additional territories.
He emphasized that a focus on security may be in the political interest of Western partners, as Europe can support Ukraine while critical US support is suspended for the foreseeable future.
– This approach is cheaper. It is highly efficient. It helps in solving human resource problems because defense is easier than offense with manpower. Even without US funding, this is an area where European countries can really contribute, Ashford said.
Speaking about what a Ukrainian victory would look like, Ashford pointed to the continued existence of the state and the survival of its citizens. According to him, Ukraine has already won the battle against Russian troops.
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