As the second anniversary of the Russian invasion approaches, Ukraine's military prospects appear to be weakening, the Financial Times reported. As he pointed out, the country is abandoning hopes of a quick victory and preparing instead for a protracted war. A Western official involved in Ukrainian policy believes so “The prospects for operational improvement on both sides are slim in 2024.”Let alone several months.
Signals to this effect are coming from Kiev, where the president is Volodymyr Zelensky announced in early December that a “new stage” had begun He also ordered the army to build new forts along key sections of the 1,000-kilometer front.
According to a Western official quoted by the FT, an “active defense” strategy – maintaining defensive lines but looking for weak spots to exploit in conjunction with long-range airstrikes – could allow Ukraine to rebuild its forces this year. So, it allows Preparing for 2025, when a counter-attack is more likely.
The same aspect — strengthening the weapons base and focusing on rebuilding the forces over the next 12 months — was quoted by CNN by representatives of Western intelligence and military.
The Financial Times compared the nature of Zelensky's visits. They are almost a year apart
The Financial Times also writes that the fate of Ukraine will probably be determined by several factors, mainly The West would be determined to support it in the war. Provision of military assistance and, if so, to what extent. A major concern is the approach of the largest supplier of military aid – the US, where Republicans in Congress have withheld $60 billion in future funding for Kiev.
The Daily drew particular attention to Volodymyr Zelensky's December visit to Washington, when he struck an urgent tone. Republicans in Congress must approve new military aid without delay. As noted, this is a stark contrast to his previous visit in early 2023, when he received a standing ovation from Congress: “You can accelerate our success,” he said.
“FT” indicates that Russian forces are currently on the offensive, and although Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence HUR, says that the Russian offensive has not brought any progress so far, it Russia's successes on the battlefield forced Ukraine to adopt a more defensive postureAnd this strategy is supported by key allies of Kiev.
War in Ukraine. Recommendations for transition to “strategic security”.
The Estonian Ministry of Defense spoke of Ukraine's transition to “strategic defense” in a statement released in December. This would give Ukraine and its allies time to build an industrial base, train reserves, increase the number of armed forces and increase artillery production capacity. The offensive campaign will resume in 2025.
This is consistent with Washington's proposed strategy for Ukraine. Americans are also pushing for a more conservative approach. Instead of a ground attack, focus Maintaining current territory, consolidating positions and reinforcing supplies and forces In the coming months. Meanwhile, under the American gaze, Ukrainian troops can continue to look for weaknesses in Russian defenses to exploit when the opportunity arises. Ukraine may continue — and perhaps intensify — long-range airstrikes using missiles and drones that have proven effective in attacks on Russia's Black Sea fleet and its airfields in Crimea.
Dissenting voices among Ukrainians. We speak of an “error of historical proportions.”
But as “FT” writes, there are many voices in Kiev that focus only on defensive strategy is harmful. Former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodniuk warned that this would be a “mistake of historic proportions” because without the Ukrainian offensive actions Putin “will show the world that Ukraine cannot win the war.” Butano holds the same opinion.
Another reason Ukraine has increased the importance of strengthening its security, Ukrainian security officials say on condition of anonymity. Russia may be planning a large-scale offensive in the summer. Its goal will be to occupy the rest of the four regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia, the annexation of which Putin announced in September 2022, and it cannot be ruled out that Russia will make another attempt to capture Kharkov or Kiev. .
The “FT” also points to a newly declassified assessment by US intelligence, which the newspaper was given a chance to review in December, as Putin's ultimate target in Ukraine. conquering the country and subjugating its inhabitants, remains unchanged. The document said this explains Russia's continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Avdiivka, and in the northeast towards Lyman and Kubyansk.