After Super Bowl weekend delivered one of the worst-performing frames since the pandemic, drawing just over $37 million during the Friday through Sunday window, major studio releases are returning for a much-needed box office boost during Valentine's Day and Presidents' Day.
Bob Marley: One Love
Paramount Pictures
February 14, 2024 (widely)
6-day opening weekend range: $30 million – $40 million
Weekend pros:
- Bob Marley: One Love Presales have soared in recent weeks, especially on Valentine's Day itself, as the biopic aims to capitalize on its iconic subject matter and upbeat values on the biggest night of the year and within the four-day Presidents Day setting.
- Madame Web It similarly aims to attract a long weekend with an all-female cast headlined by Dakota Johnson and Sydney Sweeney, the latter of whom is the driving force behind Anyone but youIts continued success. This sequel's connection to the Spider-Man universe could appeal to some die-hard comic fans.
- Fathom returns with the next three episodes of Season 4 of the chosen Just two weeks after the initial batch appeared. Pre-sales are mostly in line with the final season's premiere screenings and previous theatrical runs of the series.
Madame Web
Sony and Columbia Pictures
February 14, 2024 (widely)
6-day opening weekend range: $18 million – $28 million
Weekend cons:
- Unfortunately, as of the time of writing these reviews for Bob Marley: One Love It does not live up to expectations, as the film has an approval rating of approximately 39 percent from 46 reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Advance sales are also somewhat loaded on Valentine's Day, although calendar alignment may bias these models too conservatively in terms of weekend audience retention.
- the worst, Madame Web It received just a 19 percent critic score from 47 submissions on the review aggregation site. This is a worrying trend for a film that has already struggled to overcome negative social media perception, with users creating memes that create high awareness but low interest in the wake of the recent comic book's poor performance.
- Despite the influx of new content, bad reviews can put a damper on at least one film (if not both) depending on how widespread word of mouth is. This is another unfortunate development for a theater market that has endured one of its worst non-pandemic seasons in some time thanks to a lack of event-level leftovers from the holidays or January.
The Chosen One: Season 4, Episodes 4-6
Understanding events
February 15, 2024 (widely)
5-day opening weekend range: $5 million – $9 million
Current projection ranges call for a 60% decrease Of the comparable weekend top ten gross of $ 138.7 million in 2023 and 47% decreases From $105.2 million for 2019 during the same calendar windows.
| film | studio | 3 day weekend forecast | Expected domestic gross as of Sunday, February 18 | 3-Day % Change from Last Wknd | 4 day weekend forecast | Expected domestic gross as of Monday, February 19 |
| Bob Marley: One Love | Paramount Pictures | $19,600,000 | $32,100,000 | new | $22,800,000 | $35,300,000 |
| Madame Web | Sony and Columbia Pictures | $14,000,000 | $20,300,000 | new | $16,300,000 | $22,600,000 |
| The Chosen One: Season 4, Episodes 4-6 | Understanding events | $4,800,000 | $5,900,000 | new | $5,600,000 | $6,700,000 |
| Argyle | Universal Pictures | $3,900,000 | $35,400,000 | -38% | $4,500,000 | $36,100,000 |
| Immigration | Images and global illumination | $3,000,000 | $114,200,000 | 2% | $4,000,000 | $115,200,000 |
| Wonka | Warner Bros. Pictures | $2,700,000 | $209,100,000 | -12% | $3,400,000 | $209,800,000 |
| beekeeper | MGM | $2,600,000 | $59,100,000 | -24% | $3,100,000 | $59,600,000 |
| Anyone but you | Sony and Columbia Pictures | $2,200,000 | $84,000,000 | -17% | $2,500,000 | $84,300,000 |
| Lisa Frankenstein | Focus features | $2,000,000 | $7,800,000 | -46% | $2,200,000 | $8,000,000 |
| Mean Girls (2023) | Paramount Pictures | $1,200,000 | $71,300,000 | -38% | $1,400,000 | $71,400,000 |
All forecasts are subject to review/terminationn prior to the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.
Stage numbers are either studio estimates or unofficial forecasts if preceded by “~”.
The table above does not necessarily represent the exact ranking as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or reporting intent of box office returns prior to publication.
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