SEOUL, Nov 22 (Reuters) – Officials and experts around the world are seeking to determine whether North Korea’s first spy satellite is operational as it orbits Earth after its launch on Tuesday, an effort that South Korea says is likely to include Russian help. .
North Korea appears to have overcome the technical problems that led to two previous attempts of its new Chollima-1 missile falling into the sea.
What are the capabilities of North Korea’s spy satellite?
Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer and astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, told Reuters that US Space Force data had cataloged two new objects in an orbital plane consistent with a launch from North Korea at the time reported by Pyongyang.
“I conclude that the objects are the spy satellite and the upper stage of the rocket,” he said.
But what has not yet been confirmed is whether its payload, the Maljeong-1 reconnaissance satellite, is operational, and whether North Korea has received any outside assistance.
Analysts said it may take some time to determine whether the satellite is in operational orbit, sending signals, and what its capabilities are.
“To evaluate the success of this launch, it is important not only to determine whether the projectile entered orbit but also to secure the ability to adjust and conduct reconnaissance from that orbit,” said Hong Min, a senior fellow at the Korea National Research Institute. Unification. “This includes verifying the ability to capture images with optical cameras and transmit them appropriately to the satellite centre.”
How can a satellite be used for spying?
North Korea did not show images of the satellite, but images released by state media of leader Kim Jong Un’s visit this year to a production facility showed small solar-powered satellites likely similar to those launched on Tuesday, North Korea’s state news agency KCNA reported. . Van Van Diepen, a former US government weapons expert who works with the Stimson Center in Washington.
“This is likely to be a relatively small optical satellite and its resolution will be relatively low,” he told Reuters. “But even a relatively low-resolution satellite is better than no satellite, which is their current situation.”
Such a satellite is unlikely to provide North Korea with detailed intelligence on specific weapons systems in South Korea, for example, but would still be useful in identifying things like large troop movements, Van Diepen added.
He added that in order to launch a more capable satellite, North Korea would likely need to develop a larger rocket, which it appears to be doing.
After the first failed test, South Korea recovered some debris from the Chollima-1 missile, including, for the first time, parts of a satellite, which it said had little military value.
Are you helping Russia?
South Korea’s spy agency said North Korea may have overcome technical hurdles with the help of Russia, which publicly pledged in September to help Pyongyang build satellites.
However, many experts expressed doubt that Moscow could have provided game-changing assistance in the roughly two months since then.
“It is too early for the North Koreans to incorporate any assistance Russia may have agreed to provide,” Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said in a post on the social media platform X. “The Russians may have given them some advice, but it’s normal for countries to move on and learn.”
Chang Young-kyun, a professor at Korea Aerospace University, said it was impossible for North Korea to rebuild a satellite with Russian technology or with the help of hardware during that period.
He added, “But Russia could have provided some analysis about previous failures and telemetry data.”
Replacing parts, improving software, system integration and conducting tests typically cannot happen quickly, but Russian support could still be valuable in key areas such as improving the satellite’s capabilities or resolving a combustion instability problem that plagued a previous launch, Li Chun said. Jeon, a missile expert at the Science and Technology Policy Institute in South Korea.
Are North Korea’s latest satellite tests related to its missile programs?
The United States and its allies have described North Korea’s recent satellite tests as a clear violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, which prohibit the development of technology that could be applied to North Korea’s ballistic missile programs.
UN resolutions – issued with Russia’s support – also prohibit any scientific and technical cooperation with North Korea in nuclear science and technology, aviation and space engineering and technology, or advanced manufacturing production techniques and methods.
Analysts said the Chollima-1 appears to be a new design and likely uses the liquid-propellant twin-nozzle engines developed for Pyongyang’s Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missiles, which have roots in Soviet designs.
However, although the Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) may use the same RD250-like engines as North Korea’s ICBMs, there are design differences between the two, Lewis said.
He added: “North Korea is no longer shy about testing intercontinental ballistic missiles, so no, it is actually a spacecraft.”
(Reporting by Hyun Young Yi, Hyunhee Shin, Jo Min Park and Josh Smith – Prepared by Mohammed for the Arabic Bulletin) Writing by Josh Smith and Angus McSwan
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