Ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius in 2023 and throughout the event, Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Ukraine needs and deserves membership in the organization. However, the alliance decided not to send a specific invitation – and not only about the possible escalation of the conflict with Russia.
Kimberly Morton, an American political scientist and expert on the history of Russia-NATO relations and a professor at Barnard College and Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, believes that this is because the West is concerned about the uncertainty about Kiev’s political future.
“Ukraine was very brave, accomplished and did a lot to show the West that it is a good partner. Zelensky is its face. But we don’t know what will happen when he is no longer president,” he said.
A one way road
Morton believes that if Ukraine loses a significant amount of territory to Russia, one of the possible consequences will be an increase in political extremism in the country.
– If fresh [ukraińskie] He said the leadership had restructuring goals that would require Ukraine to recover all of its territory, which would make it more difficult for NATO to provide security guarantees. “If you’re in NATO, they can’t kick you out,” he added.
In such a situation, a NATO member, according to the expert, can encourage the country’s leaders to act recklessly, because they know that if Moscow responds aggressively, the alliance will rush to rescue them.
“It is important to ensure that whoever comes [władzy] After Zelensky and after the war, Morton explains, he will not try to use NATO membership to take more aggressive, high-risk actions that could drag NATO into direct war with Russia.
Increased risk
At the same time, the risk of Russian expansion in response to Ukraine’s membership pledge in NATO is not without significance. According to Morton, some countries fear that pledging Kiev’s membership in the alliance at this stage would “overflow the cup of bitterness” – especially after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion in June, which weakened Putin’s image.
– Now there is an argument that he can attack, to counter this weakness that many attribute to him, so giving him another excuse is not a good idea, especially at a time when many are worried about what is going on with Zaporozhye’s nuclear power. Plant, what she can do there,” notes Kimberly Morton.
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Vladimir Putin during the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9, 2023.
He also insists that a promise to formally invite Ukraine to join NATO after the war ends could give Putin a further incentive to ensure the war does not end. How difficult is it to determine the outcome of a war, and what does it mean – needless to say complete victory? A ceasefire?
“I think it is very difficult and complicated to plan things for the future after the end of the war. It is more prudent to wait and see how things unfold than to present a table now that can be used by the Russian side,” he argues.
A de facto member of NATO
Still, Morton said he doesn’t believe concerns about Russia’s reaction should be a major obstacle to Ukraine joining NATO. First, in February 2022, Putin made it clear that he already considered Ukraine a “de facto member of NATO” before member states began sending arms.
“Since then, we have seen the development of very strong relations between Ukraine and various Western countries. So I think that after issuing the invitation, Putin will definitely consider Ukraine as a de facto member of NATO. [jeśli wcześniej tego nie robił] The expert points out.
However, it is difficult for the Russian president to escalate the war further – he has already made it clear that he is willing to target civilians and destroy critical infrastructure. such as the dam at Nova Kachovka. He seems to have decided that crossing other red lines is against Russia’s interests.
“I don’t think he has done much — by moving the war into NATO territory or by deciding to use nuclear or chemical weapons, which he threatened last fall — because that would not be in Russia’s interest, especially from China and India. They have made it clear that the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable,” Morton said. said.
Provide future support
Although membership is out of the question for now, there are other important guarantees that Ukraine should seek – not from the alliance, but from its member states. For example, the United States has so far been enthusiastic (though less generous than Kiev would like) in providing arms and training to Ukraine. However, it is not certain that this support will continue, especially in the upcoming elections.
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“It would be great if the Democrats had a debate about relationships [między Stanami Zjednoczonymi a Ukrainą] “With Republican leaders in the House and Senate, we can get a cross-party consensus on supporting Ukraine ahead of the 2024 presidential election,” says Morton.
Donald Trump refuses to support Ukraine. If he wins again, the expert believes “anything is possible” regarding Washington’s commitments to both NATO and Ukraine.
“Before that it is better to formalize the relationship with bipartisan support,” he said.
However, Trump’s victory does not mean the end of his support for Kiev. Aid to Ukraine enjoys bipartisan support in the United States because it allows lawmakers from both parties to demonstrate that budget money is being spent effectively.
“Ukraine has done a great job of demonstrating this so far, and has been very careful about following US rules on reporting where weapons are going,” he says.
Political situation in Russia
Unforeseen developments in Russia’s internal situation may end the war earlier than many expected (or in Ukraine’s favor). Says an American professor.
On the one hand, researchers such as Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erika Frantz have shown that when a leader holds authoritarian power for a long time, his wars are usually continued by his successors. “It is highly unlikely that a new authoritarian leader coming to power in Russia will change the basic structure of Putin,” he asserts.
On the other hand though The morale of the Russian players is a key point — especially after Yevgeny Prigozhin publicly challenged the Kremlin’s official motives for the war.
– If Russia is a very strong authoritarian power and everything is controlled by Putin, it will be very difficult to achieve what Ukraine wants to achieve. Morton said. — But some cracks are beginning to appear in the Russian system, and in a few months or years, they could eventually turn things in Ukraine’s favor. she added.
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