Zelensky’s Ambitious Plan: A Summer Offensive? – o2

Reznikov’s announcements were lofty and ambitious. These include de-occupation of the south of the country, commitment of “million-strong forces” to be mobilized by Ukraine, and plans to use arms supplies from the West. If you look at the map of Ukraine, it says it might be Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions.

Why exactly there? Because expelling the aggressors from the south of the country would once again cut off Crimea from Russia. And this is very important. Since the start of the war, military analysts have argued that the Russians have made building a road, a land corridor, to the peninsula one of Russia’s strategic goals in the war since February.

However, there are many doubts. Ukraine has been fighting since February and has lost considerable strength and resources. He is painstakingly rebuilding lost skills, but training new players and distribution from the West takes time. So, can they do such a big surgery?

These plans are realistic if Ukraine has at least six first-line forces and three reserve forces. Total, about 45 thousand. People. This is a lot, although it must be admitted that the success of such a move would open up more forces on the Ukrainian side. But it is necessary, because the area simply needs to be saturated with people. The soldier must maintain the captured territory. However, I see some threats here – says Colonel Piotr Lewandowski o2.pl, a veteran of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

First, if such an attack actually begins, it cannot be stopped, giving the Russians time to regroup and replenish their forces. However, if the intended objectives are not achieved and the Russians do not withdraw, the offensive may slow down and the operation collapses after a few days of hostilities.

That is why I am talking about three reserve forces. They should then enter the fray and maintain the momentum of the attack, breaking the Russian resistance. But so far there are no signs of a crack in the Russian front, the official explains.

Second, if the Ukrainians strike in the south, they will still be threatened by Russian forces and resources from Crimea. Third, the Russians did not maintain their main forces in the south. Actions in the south will certainly be important, as Lewandowski says.

Fragmentation of the Russian corridor to Crimea would look good on the map and be a political victory. If that happens, the Russians may launch a major counterattack on Slovianska and Kramatorsk. With the additional invasion of Crimea, it creates a threat to the flanks of Ukrainian troops.

But something has to happen. Lewandowski believes such an attack would pose a major planning challenge for both sides. So far, the Ukrainians are doing well ideologically with the enormous support of NATO.

The official asks one more important question: Why is the Ukrainian side so vocal about an attack in this particular direction? This would mean regrouping the forces of the aggressors. And Russians are not stupid. If the Ukrainian side announces its actions loudly, they will replenish their forces there. If it is not … the most effective deception of the Ukrainians. This possibility is considered by the interlocutor o2.pl.

The partial covert concentration, he says, is not surprising at the operational level. That is why he is surprised by loud Ukrainian announcements. However, it also allows for another possibility: deliberate disinformation for the Russians. “Finty w fincie” – Described in “Dune” by Frank Herbert.

If the Ukrainians say loudly where they want to hit, the plan may be an element that confuses the enemy and the actual actions will move in a different direction. Finally, there is one more way: the Ukrainians talk loudly about the actions, and the Russians may react by thinking “Wow, if they announce a strike here, it’s an attempt to confuse us, the strike will happen elsewhere.” .” Levandovsky says that Ukrainian troops will actually launch an offensive in the south and carry out their tasks.

Therefore, it is difficult to assess the course of possible actions at this time. Assumptions say that the offensive should be carried out with the help of fresh, rested, well-equipped forces, and according to Lewandowski, we will deal with the reverse of the situation: the Ukrainians will primarily attack those units. Struggled for a long time.

Also, there are many unknowns. For example, we don’t know if the Ukrainians can mass artillery, which would be critical to a strike. The Ukrainians are perfectly fine with Himars missiles from the US, but they need missiles with greater range. If they get ATACMS missiles, it could be critical to operations as they can hit Russian troops behind the front lines.

There is another problem discussed by analyst Jaroslaw Wolski. These are the personnel shortages that are slowly beginning to plague the Ukrainian military. While he describes the idea of ​​a Ukrainian offensive in the south as logical, it raises the question of whether the Ukrainians have the strength and resources to do so.

This may be hampered by the losses they suffered at the Severo donut arc in the Donbass. Ukraine is running out of combatants, so to speak, “disintegrated” by the fighting. But the Ukrainians train their reserves in a very sensible way. For example, Wolski says they send companies of young soldiers to the front for a week, then learn about the realities of war and return to training.

This is where he sees the biggest problem. In terms of hardware, it is slightly better. Losses are replenished as quickly as possible, so they don’t hurt as much. As for artillery, thanks to deliveries, they are slowly moving towards NATO standards.

For example, deliveries of HIMARS are to restore capabilities lost as a result of losses in the Uragan and Smierch launchers. Therefore, the most important thing for Ukraine at the moment is the gradual destruction of Russian ammunition stores. For one simple reason – it stops the attack. Russians should reorganize logistics, move depots about 100 km from the front line and surround warehouses with S-300W and BUK launchers to better protect them – Volsky says.

However, Ukraine needs a lot more. According to o2.pl, an officer serving in one of the major military organizations (he is on active duty, so he remains anonymous) needs are huge.

The Americans are pressuring everyone to hand over MLRS, 120mm guns, 122, 152 and 155mm ammunition. But the well is slowly running dry. You can see the determination of Germany or France. No one will turn the economy to war – says our interlocutor.

Although the Americans, British and Canadians have donated large amounts of military equipment, it is still not enough for Ukraine, he says. Especially since the Russians have bombarded Ukraine with artillery fire. Russian artillery ammunition (each with a different capacity) is estimated to last for several years.

You can interject that fairy tales are over. Maybe modern. But they still have Cold War ammunition and use it whenever possible, the official says.

Meanwhile, the attack will be costly. Thus, there are unofficial reports that Poland handed over more tanks to the Ukrainians. However, this time it was not about the old, worn-out T-72, but the relatively modern and well-equipped PT-91 “Twardy” tanks. There is no official confirmation, but there are several dozen machines.

It was only a matter of time before the PT-91 was sent east along with most of our T-72s. For now, rumors are that a tank battalion has been sent or is ready to be sent. Ukraine has asked the West for about 500 tanks and apparently will get it. 240 of our T-72s, maybe a little more, eventually 200-230 Twardy, some T-72 from the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Slovenia – says Bartlomiej Kucharski, an expert in armored forces, o2.pl.

The journalist of “Wojsko i Technika” magazine explains that Ukrainians will see their potential filled. Whether that is enough depends on how long the war lasts. However, Russia’s reserves are huge, and the West is in no rush to send the Ukrainians Leopard 1s or even older versions of the Abrams. Derived from the Polish PT-91 T-72M1.

This is an older version, but it has been completely modernized here. These tanks have a fire control system, each of them has a thermal imaging camera, which allows you to fight at night in good conditions – even in Russia, all tanks have a relatively small area. In addition, they have Polish ERAWA reactive armor, not new, but adequate for older anti-tank weapons. Kucharsky says that once the Ukrainians get the Tvarde, if they use it well, they will have one of the most lethal weapons in the Ukrainian arsenal.

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